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Brief · September 2026

Empty-leg pricing patterns, 2026

Repositioning one-ways are the most marketed “deal” in private aviation—and the easiest to misunderstand. This brief maps illustrative discount depth against booking lead time and explains why cancellation risk belongs in the same spreadsheet as the fare.

An empty leg exists because an aircraft must move without a paying passenger load—often after an owner trip, before a maintenance slot, or between charter contracts. The seller’s problem is sunk positioning cost; the buyer’s problem is asymmetric flexibility. Those incentives produce a recognizable pricing curve.

The discount curve

In our illustrative composite for light and midsize one-ways, headline discounts widen as operators gain confidence the aircraft will truly fly empty, then compress again when the flight is so far out that a better-paying charter may still appear.

Illustrative discount depth vs lead time Composite pattern for light/midsize one-ways · not live market data 0% 25% 50% 75% 28% 42% 55% 48% 35% Same day 1–3 days 4–7 days 8–14 days 15+ days
Peak illustrative discount appears in the 4–7 day window—long enough for operators to publish, short enough that the aircraft still must move. Same-day deals look cheaper in headlines but cancel more often.

What the bars omit

  • Cancellation asymmetry. Owner or subsequent charter demand can yank the leg with little notice. The deepest discounts often sit on the flimsiest commitments.
  • Airport substitution. “Teterboro to Nice” may become a secondary field pair once payload and slots are real.
  • One-way dead ends. A bargain outbound without a planned return still requires a commercial or full-price charter home.

How to use empty legs without kidding yourself

  1. Require written cancellation and re-accommodation terms before depositing.
  2. Keep a commercial backup priced and holdable until wheels-up confirmation.
  3. Compare the empty-leg all-in against a brokered one-way on the same day—not against a peak round-trip brochure rate.
  4. Prefer legs where the operator’s next obligation is hard (mx slot, committed charter) over soft owner preference moves.
Methodology notes. Chart values are illustrative composites for editorial explanation on this v1 site—not scraped live listings. See also our JetSetter Empty Legs review for product-level framing, and About for how Charter Index Score treats opportunistic inventory.

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